Political Contagion and the Alternating Trend in State and Federal Politics in Australia

It's often heard after a State election: "this election was a referendum on the Federal government!" Surely, you've heard it at least once. There's an underlying premise to this statement, however, that needs to be brought to the surface. The premise is this: the party in power at a Federal level has lost the State election in question. This is actually a common occurrence, and has been over the last 40 years. The party in power at a Federal level usually loses elections at a State level. This was particularly pronounced under John Howard.

There is a clear trend between State and Federal election results to suggest there is some kind of contagion that influences the political cycle in this country. Indeed, I would say it is central to the modern political cycle. Our "Federalist" system provides a bulwark, however malignant it may sometimes get, against the excesses of the Commonwealth. The trend of swapping parties at the State level may simply be an expression of the general anti-incumbency felt throughout the electorate. But I'm getting speculative at this point. Let's talk about trends. The modern trend of alternating the parties at a State in contrast with the Federal level can be seen to start during the Whitlam era.

The nation had just emerged from 24-odd years of conservative rule. The State-Federal alternating cycle was somewhat in effect during the Menzies era; with the exception of South Australia up until the mid-60s, whose electoral cycle was severely stunted by entrenched gerrymandering; a similar fate would befall Queensland at a later date. Menzies' unprecedented success was assisted by the Labor Party's internal problems, surrounding Communism in particular, which resulted in the rise of the Democratic Labor Party, who helped the Menzies Liberal Party retain power for so long.

I hold to the view that Australian politics is largely governed by a cycle; we have two major parties and every now and then they swap seats. This cyclical process is a common feature of two-party electoral systems around the world. The best a political party can hope for is to extend their time in the big chairs, and contract the time their opponents get. In Australia, there is a general trend to give the governing party at least two terms in office. Whitlam only served the equivalent of one term (three years), but did, in fact, win two elections (1972 and 1974). Generally speaking, we can say that the party that wins office from opposition always retains government at the next election.

With few exceptions, Whitlam being perhaps the most high profile, the trend in Australia politics has been towards stability, and, as such, longevity. The only other one-termer, since the Deakin-Fischer-Cook merry-go-round (we might include Hughes here, but he was a merry-go-round unto himself!), was James Scullin's Labor government during the Great Depression. Scullin's government was actually shorter than Whitlam's. The alternating State/Federal trend, however, is really a product of Menzies' longevity, which is why we may take as a starting point the rise and fall of the Whitlam Labor government: Whitlam's victory marks the end of the old cycle.

The trend, however, begins to take shape during the Fraser period; State Labor governments start to emerge toward the back-end of that period. Neville Wran's New South Wales Labor government, which won office in 1976, is the major exception here. Tasmania, under John Bannon, would remain a Labor State for almost all of the Fraser period. It wouldn't be until 1982, however, that the remaining Liberal states would fall in quick succession. Queensland, during this period, is another exception because of what is often referred to as the "Bjelkemander." Although the gerrymandering in Queensland had begun before Joh Bjelke-Peterson's assumption to the Premiership.

During the Hawke-Keating era Liberal governments start to emerge "mid-term" in the late-80s with State Liberal/Coalition victories, starting with Nick Greiner in New South Wales in 1988, and then in quick succession with Jeff Kennett in Victoria in 1992, Ray Groom in Tasmania also in 1992, Richard Court in Western Australia in 1993, and Dean Brown in South Australia also in 1993. Queensland at this time is still an exception; in 1989 Wayne Goss will break more than 30 years of conservative rule. It won't be for another 10 years before Queensland's State results start to reflect the alternating trend.

During the Howard years, this trend becomes more pronounced. Bob Carr would win in New South Wales in 1995, the year prior to Howard taking office (Carr's electoral success is partly explained by the collapse of the Fahey Liberal government); then in 1998 Tasmania and Queensland would fall to Jim Bacon and Peter Beattie, respectively; in 1999 Victoria would fall to Steve Bracks, with Western Australia 2001 to Geoff Gallop and South Australia in 2002 to Mike Rann. The Liberal/Coalition would not win another State election until 2008 in Western Australia, the year after the Howard government fell, and this was, technically, a hung parliament.

Subsequent to Kevin Rudd's victory in 2007, Labor would win State elections in Queensland in 2009, under Anna Bligh, and in South Australia under Mike Rann, and Tasmania under David Bartlett in 2010. Although the Tasmania election was, technically, a hung parliament. The Coalition, however, would win State victories in 2010 in Victoria under Ted Ballieu; 2011 in New South Wales under Barry O'Farrell; and 2012 in Queensland under Campbell Newman. The last two were particularly massive victories. Colin Barnett would also win a second term in Western Australia in 2013.

It is important to note two things about this period: first, Kevin Rudd would be replaced in 2010 as Prime Minister by Julia Gillard; and second, the 2010 Federal election would result in a hung parliament, the first federally since the Second World War. This event can be seen to have had an effect on the results at a State level, particularly in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. However, it should be remembered that New South Wales had been governed by the Labor Party for 16 years, while Queensland had been governed, with the exception of the Borbidge government from 1996-98, had been under Labor for 20-odd years.

The longevity of State governments must be given more significance than any contagion from the Federal arena. Having said that, the alternating trend is not only clear but growing more pronounced. It is widely argued that Howard's protracted presence was a millstone for State Liberal Parties. It is further argued that Labor's currently "toxic" presence at a Federal level is damaging the prospects of State Labor. This is perhaps most obvious in Western Australia, where a commensurately popular Labor leader not only failed to win government, but actually lost seats. It should be noted, Colin Barnett is also relatively well-liked, and the general rule of thumb that governments get a second-term also applies.

It is Labor's toxic Federal influence that will ultimately give the Liberal Party dominance across both levels of government. Should Labor lose government in September, as seems likely, it will be followed in 2014 by likely losses in Tasmania and South Australia. Again, it should be remembered that both these states have been governed by Labor for more than a decade. Labor will be without a Federal or State government (not counting Territories) in 2014. The Victorian State election is due in late 2014; this will be a winnable election, but the contagion may not have dissipated by this time. Conversely, Tony Abbott's contagion may not yet have set in. The State is also, technically in a hung parliament, and the Liberal party recently replaced a first-term Premier. It will be the election to watch in 2014. But, of course, we're getting ahead of ourselves.

What can we take from these facts? There are a couple of things: first, governments tend to get a second-term. Second, the alternating trend doesn't tend to quicken until the second-term of a Federal government. That is to say, when States fall, then tend to fall in quick succession, but they don't tend to fall in the first-term of a new Federal government. This latter point, however, was more pronounced under the Hawke-Keating government than under the subsequent Howard government.

It is highly unlikely, as such, that Labor will win in either New South Wales (in 2015), or Queensland (also likely in 2015, all other things being equal), and the contagion from Federal Labor, or the general alternating trend, may be too strong to save them in Tasmania and South Australia, even in Victoria. Western Australia is not due for another State election until 2017, which would be the theoretical second-term for an Abbott government.

One can certainly argue that there is no strict causal link between Federal and State elections; in general, I think that's correct. But it would be naïve to suggest that there is no causal link at all; it may, of course, be a correlative link. The alternating trend does not indicate either way. The trend, however, is there. And that trend, at the very least, is indicative of an electoral cycle that encompasses both State and Federal governments. Can any predictions be made based on this trend? Sure, but only general, long-term ones.

Based on current events, the Labor party will be in the Federal wilderness from September, and based on the "second-term principle" are unlikely to return to the big chairs until 2019 at the earliest. Labor is also unlike to return to power in Queensland and New South Wales until at least 2018 and 2019, respectively; the margins in both these states are just too big to unseat two first-term governments in 2015. Victoria remains the only winnable State between now and 2017, but Labor would need to unseat a first-term government, and even with the Baillieu-Napthine debacle, that would still be very difficult. Tasmania and South Australia will likely fall in 2014, and won't be re-contested until 2018.

2018-19, then, is the period where any real resurgence will come; there is also a convergence of elections around this time, and, what is more, a Federal Coalition government will be in its second-term, as will most State governments. Now, I believe that ultimately the political cycle will prevail; eventually, governments will change hands. It is a question for the Liberals how long they can extend the cycle, and for Labor how quickly they can contract the Liberal's time in office. Neither is fully in control of events that may benefit them or adversely affect them, and neither is fully in control of their political capital.

The Labor party, as such, will be in the wilderness for sometime. Hopefully, they use that time to reconnect with voters, and engage a bit of internal party reform; otherwise, they may find themselves in the wilderness again very quickly after the alternating trend eventually "flips" in their favour again. That this Labor government will be the first government not to win a third election since Whitlam will cause a disruption in the alternating trend. Since Whitlam, every government has gotten at least a third-term, and this is the major contributing factor to the trend. If any in-coming Liberal government fails to go beyond two-terms, then the trend will change, for at least a decade, to one of corresponding, and not alternating.

This is all hypothetical, of course, but it bears remembering that politics is not just about today, or the next election; our politics, just like our lives, exists in a continuum, and understanding the rhythms and patterns of that continuum is useful for contextualising individual events or phenomena.